A new agreement between the UK and France allowing the return of some migrants arriving by small boats has taken effect, though officials remain tight-lipped on expected numbers.
Under the deal, asylum seekers who cross the Channel irregularly could be sent back to France if their claims are deemed inadmissible. In exchange, the UK will process eligible asylum seekers already in France who have not attempted the dangerous journey.
Government sources suggest the program will start small, with initial returns potentially numbering around 50 per week—a fraction of the 800+ migrants currently arriving weekly. Authorities argue that disclosing exact figures could aid smuggling networks, though critics question whether the plan will significantly deter crossings.
Migration experts warn that without a higher return rate, the policy may have little impact. “With only a 5% chance of being sent back, many may still take the risk,” said one analyst. “People boarding these boats are already gambling with their lives.”
The initiative follows a sharp rise in crossings, with over 25,000 arrivals recorded by late July—nearly 50% higher than the same period last year. The government has pledged additional funding to combat smuggling operations, including £100 million for 300 new National Crime Agency officers.
Opponents argue the plan falls short of previous proposals, such as the stalled Rwanda deportation scheme, which aimed to remove all irregular arrivals. Supporters, however, call it a pragmatic step toward reducing dangerous journeys while maintaining international legal obligations.
As the trial begins, its effectiveness—and whether it can curb the rising tide of crossings—remains to be seen.
